The Chicago Cubs won a baseball game. With only 7 wins against 14 losses, that is news in and of itself. Sporting a record of 5-17, we should be beating up on these Marlins of Miami. This is certainly a battle for first round draft picks, not that the draft means as much in baseball as in other major sports, but when you have two bottom of the barrel teams like the Cubs and Marlins, The team with the most losses is technically the winner in next years draft. I've often wondered if bad teams lose at the end of the season in order to secure a higher pick in the draft. I doubt it though. No one likes losing or performing poorly, especially if your own job is on the line, but these are two pretty thinly stocked baseball teams playing each other. Looking at the differences between these teams however, their weaknesses and strengths can provide a window into what has A. Gone wrong for these teams and needs improvement, and B. In which direction are these teams heading? Towards a future World Series? Or seasons of languishing at the bottom of the standings?
The Marlins are dead last in nearly every category of hitting, but especially home runs. They have hit only 6 this year, which is no surprise considering the dimensions of their ballpark are huge. The next worst team, The Padres, have double that amount. The Cubs have 26 homeruns, 3rd in the national league. Which is not bad considering how rainy and cold our last homestand was. Is it possible that the Cubbies are built for power, and once the warm weather hits, it'll be bye bye baseball all summer long? Lets hope. Luis Valbuena, our utility infielder turned everyday starter, has played the hero twice this week. Hitting in the clutch, 2 late inning go ahead homeruns. However, when you compare the two team's on base percentage, the Cubs are slightly worse than the Marlins. Which means all of these homeruns are being hit with nobody on base. So the Cubs are 3rd in Home Runs, but 12th in actual runs scored. The Cubs are dead last in walks (45). 8 less than the free swinging Brewers. 4th in Strikeouts. And Second to last, just 2 over the Marlins in total hits. If the Cubs can manage to get some men on base, we might have a shot at putting some crooked numbers on the board with homeruns. A couple of Grand Slams would be nice to see this summer. Get on base boys! So as far as hitting goes, advantage Cubs. But our poor OBP is not going to allow us to beat other teams of a higher caliber.
Now lets look at pitching. The Cubs have a 3.42 ERA. 5th best in the National League. And this has been done with a bullpen that's been horrible. Losing numerous games in which our starting pitchers have pitched incredibly. So, it's a tale of two pitching staffs. The Marlins are second to last in this category 4.48. The Cubs starters have a 3.04 ERA, which actually ranks 3rd best in the NL. However, our bullpen ranks 10th with a 4.29 ERA. A full run and change differential. Compare that to the top teams in the NL like the Braves 1.60, and surprisingly, the Pirates 1.91, you can see the Cubs have a long way to go in improving in this area. However, it might be as simple as a few demotions, and a couple of trades. Pirates....can we have your bullpen? James Russel has been great for us. He hasn't given up a single run in 11 games! Camp, Marmol and Bowden are a different story so far. Marmol leads all NL relievers with 9 walks. Bowden leads all relievers in Wild pitches with 3. Our pitchers are second in hit batsmen, 12, half by relievers. 4th in walks allowed (Marlins are 3rd). The Marlins relievers however are number 1 in walks allowed, while the Cubs rank 10th. So while you compare these two terrible teams on pitching, you can definitely see a bright spot for the Cubbies in starting pitching. Just gotta work out some kinks, and replace a few guys. We've been in a lot of these close 1 run games against tough teams like the Giants and Reds. We could easily be 14-7 if some of these relievers would be relieved from being Chicago Cubs.
Final consideration for these teams. Defense. The Cubs are tied for second with the Marlins in errors with 18. Although only one total error was committed last night, by the Marlins, this weekend has the potential to be one sloppy mess of fielding. We are first in Passed Balls with 3. Add that to our prowess for Wild Pitches, and what you have is a lot of opposing players runners taking free bases. ruining the opportunities for force outs and double plays. Opposing runners scoring from 3rd and all that. Not to mention, with all these errors, you are taxing your pitching staff incredibly. The Cubs have given away too many ball games with these errors. You can't give good opponents extra outs. They will beat you. Starlin Castro has 4 errors, and I can think of at least 2 games that his errors had an impact on the final losing of the game. Scott Feldman, our pitcher tonight in Miami, has 3 errors, averaging an error per game. This has got to improve. We've been waiting for Castro to improve for a few years now, and I'm now of the opinion that he's just not that smart. Certainly, he's talented. But he doesn't really have his head in the game, and he's no better or worse than when he came up as a rookie. I know they are trying to build a team around Castro, but is that wise? He's not Derek Jeter.
OK. So, ballgames are not won on paper. But if they were, we'd have a good chance to sweep the Marlins if we don't use our bullpen, and hit homeruns after our guys reach on a Marlins error. Let's hope. It's hard to know where the Cubs and Marlins are heading in the next few years. The Marlins blew up their failed dream team of a year ago, and the Cubs have told the fans "be patient". It seems to me, we won't have to be that patient to contend as long as some key areas are fixed. Defense. Relief pitching. On Base Percentage. Ugh...that's a lot isn't it? Our slugger Rizzo is batting .173 with a .256 OBP. That's bad. Our star shortstop Castro kicks the ball around. And we have no closer. Sure. We are rebuilding. But for how long? And what the hell are they building?
Well. Let's go get em tonight. I want to see some embarassingly bad baseball at some point this weekend. Just for fun. Maybe we can make a drinking game, where every time something stupid happens, we take a shot. Oh ....my poor liver.....
Go Cubbies!
